What if Jalen Williams misses the season: can the Thunder's depth cover the gap?

This is a hypothetical. Oklahoma City has not set a timeline for Jalen Williams, who has a fractured fibula and a dislocated left ankle and needs surgery. Yahoo reported he could miss most or all of this season. Take that at face value and ask a narrow question: who plays his minutes, and who takes his shots?

The possessions that need a new owner

Williams used roughly a quarter of the Thunder's possessions last season, which makes him the clearest second option next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That is the first hole. The second is harder to see in a box score. He guarded the other team's best wing and then ran the offense when Gilgeous-Alexander sat. Few players on the roster can do both.

Cason Wallace is the other loss. He needs surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and reports on his return conflict, with one outlet pointing to a possible April comeback and another saying much longer. In this scenario, assume he is gone for the season too. Wallace was never a high-usage player, so his absence barely touches the scoring math. It touches the perimeter defense, where he did his best work.

Who is left

The names that come up most are Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Jared McCain. Mitchell is the natural answer for creation. Caruso covers the defensive assignments Williams and Wallace used to share. McCain gives them a shooter who can punish teams for helping off Gilgeous-Alexander.

The problem is the bench behind them. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe are all gone, which strips out the wings who would normally absorb a double injury. The Thunder have no obvious veteran to slide into a starting spot without something else breaking. Yahoo noted the team already ranked poorly in offense and assists before the injuries, so the offense cannot afford to lose its secondary playmaker.

What the simulation says

Run the lineups with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor and the shape holds up. Mitchell and McCain handle the ball, Caruso defends, and the bigs do their usual work. The team can survive that for long stretches. The trouble comes in the minutes Gilgeous-Alexander rests. Without Williams, those minutes lose their only proven second creator, and the defense loses a wing who could switch onto stars.

So the net rating should fall, though not off a cliff. A deep roster absorbs scoring better than it absorbs defensive versatility, and Oklahoma City is short on versatility right now. The market agreed: FanDuel moved the Thunder to +340 to win the title, and the Spurs became the favorite there. That is a fair read of a team that just lost two rotation players.

The one lever

The Thunder can seek a disabled player exception of about fourteen million dollars, according to Basketnews. It would only allow a trade for a player with one year left on his contract, and approval is not automatic. The league needs an independent medical finding that the injured player will be out long enough. The Thunder also sit above the first tax apron after offseason trades meant to keep them clear of the second, so any move has a cost.

The most likely outcome in this scenario is a team that wins plenty in the regular season and enters the playoffs as a contender with an asterisk. The tests come against the teams that can attack the lineups Williams used to anchor.