What if Marcus Smart is the reason Houston becomes a West contender

Houston is 6-1 and second in the West, and the easy explanation is the reunion of Ime Udoka and Marcus Smart, who spent their Boston years together. The better question is hypothetical: what if Smart's minutes are the real engine of the rise, and what would that say about how long it lasts?

What the early numbers actually show

Start with the part that complicates the story. Houston's offense leads the league through the opening week, and the team defense is better than last year in raw rating but not in rank. Smart's on/off split, from a sample of four games, points the same direction: the Rockets have scored far more with him on the floor, and the defensive side of his split is not better than when he sits. A defensive stopper whose team defends no better with him out there is a result worth watching, and it is far too early to call it a verdict.

Role matters too. Smart has started once in four games and mostly comes off the bench, so his minutes overlap with the second unit more than with the stars. He started against Oklahoma City only because Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard were out. Any credit for the fast start has to account for who is sharing the floor with him.

The version where he is the missing piece

Run the hypothetical forward. If Smart is the piece, the proof arrives in the categories the old Celtics leaned on him for: steals, deflections, forced turnovers, and fewer empty trips when the lead is small. Houston lost in the first round to the Lakers last season after finishing fifth, and a team that scored well but could not squeeze a playoff series needed exactly that kind of possession-by-possession edge. Smart is on a two-year deal, a modest price for a veteran who only has to deliver that in short bursts.

The test is whether the defensive split flips. If Houston's defense improves with Smart on the floor over the next month, the contender case gets real. If the offense keeps doing the work, the case rests on shooting, which tends to drift back toward the middle.

A thin conference helps

The West is giving Houston room. Oklahoma City lost in Houston and is down Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso, among others, though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing. Minnesota will be without Anthony Edwards for up to two months after knee surgery. Contenders do not usually get this many openings at the same time, and a team can bank wins in November that matter in April.

That cuts both ways for the Smart theory. A soft stretch of the schedule can make any rotation look good, which makes it harder to separate his effect from the circumstances. Houston can win games without proving he is the reason.

What to watch

Three things settle it: whether the defensive rating with Smart on the floor drops, whether his starts keep coming only when teammates are hurt, and whether Houston keeps its edge once Oklahoma City and Minnesota get bodies back. If all three break the right way, Smart is the piece. If only the offense holds, Houston is a good young team having a strong start in a weak stretch of the West, which is still a fine place to be but not the same as a contender.