The Padres cut three starters and kept the cheap one

The Padres declined options on three starters and exercised one. The one they kept, Kyle Hart, costs $2.5M. The biggest one they let go, Nick Pivetta, carried a $14M club option for 2027. Sort the four by price and the decisions line up almost perfectly. Sort them by results and they do not.

The best arm of the group walked

Pivetta posted a 2.86 ERA in 34.2 innings in the 2026 season, the best rate of any of the four. Giolito threw 29.2 innings with a 5.16 ERA. Canning threw 88.2 innings with a 5.68 ERA. Hart, the survivor, threw 64.0 innings with a 4.92 ERA.

The Padres have a defensible case on Pivetta. His 2027 player option turned into a team option because he spent more than 130 days on the injured list, and a club can look at 34.2 innings and see a risk it does not want to pay $14M to carry. The deal ended after two years and $23M.

The case on Hart is weaker as a baseball argument and stronger as a budget one. A 4.92 ERA is not a rotation anchor. At $2.5M it is a depth piece, and depth is what San Diego bought. Giolito and Canning held mutual options, so both sides had to agree, and the club's results with them gave it little reason to want a yes.

The innings do not disappear

Canning's 88.2 innings were the most any of the three options gave the club, and they came at a 5.68 ERA. Replacing a pitcher like that is not hard in a normal winter. Plenty of starters can beat a 5.68 ERA. The question is who the Padres can sign, and when.

That is where the calendar matters. The collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec 1, and owners are expected to lock out the players if no deal is reached. CBS Sports has called a lockout very likely. During a lockout, clubs cannot sign major league free agents, so the pitchers on the market now are the ones available before the freeze.

San Diego made its decisions before that window closed, which means the savings are real and the replacements are not yet on the roster. Every dollar not spent on Pivetta, Giolito and Canning is a dollar the front office can put toward other starters. It can only do that in a market that may shut for weeks or longer.

What the choice says

A club that believed it could land better arms would cut a 5.68 ERA and a 5.16 ERA without a second thought. Those two exits are easy to defend. Pivetta is the exit that reads as a payroll call, because his rate stats were the best on the staff and the only red flag was the injured list stay. Passing on him for $14M, then keeping a $2.5M option on a 4.92 ERA, shows where the club drew the line.

That line is fine if the replacements arrive. If the market freezes before they do, the Padres open the season leaning on Hart and whoever else is left, with the money saved sitting unused. The savings only matter if the front office can spend them.